Elon Musk and Twitter

The (imaginary) readers of this blog will know that I am very interested in the topic of narcissism and assholes and how they affect the world. What they won’t know, is that I also love reading Matt Levine’s daily Bloomberg email “Money Stuff”, which lately has had lots of information about Elon Musk attempting to buy Twitter.

I have a personal opinion/theory about Elon Musk. The following is where I state that theory/opinion. I deliberately over-simplify.


Lucky Asshole Theory

My theory is that Elon Musk is a “lucky asshole.” He has had success twice in taking other people’s ideas and companies and making money: once with Paypal and once with Tesla. He has gone on to continue his good luck with SpaceX.

But, like many rich people, Elon doesn’t realise he’s lucky and surrounded by great people who compensate for his assholery - he thinks he’s gifted. He has come to believe in his own brilliance, and believes everyone should listen to him on all topics. The book Loonshots called this "The Moses Trap"

But if he’s just a lucky asshole, two things will eventually happen:

  • His luck will run out
  • People will stop tolerating him (e.g. see Jobs being pushed out of Apple)

Now we come to Twitter - Elon Musk wants to buy Twitter "because freedom of speech”. What he means by "free speech" is that he and other rich assholes (e.g. Trump) need a platform to be assholes where everyone else can hear them.

In recent years, Twitter has become shit; I used to love it, but over ten years, it’s become a cess pool; it used to be fun, now it’s not.

Elon Musk is buying Twitter after it has peaked. With Paypal and Tesla he was lucky to get in early. This time he is getting in late.

Elon Musk’s attempts to improve Twitter will make it worse; more Nazi’s, more Trumpery, more cryptocurrency-spam, more libel against cave rescuers. Average users’ experiences will continue to decline and even more users will leave. 

So, I believe we are reaching Peak Musk. As his luck wears out, he’ll no longer be a lucky asshole. He’ll just be an asshole. An asshole who is in control of Twitter, Tesla and SpaceX.

If he rages against his bad luck leading to failures, he will be unable to accept responsibility for any of his own decisions. He will become even more of an asshole to the people around him in Tesla, Twitter and Space X, driving the good staff away to innovate elsewhere; they will take their ideas with them, and leaving a husk of a company filled with Yes Men and scared idiots.


Putting My Money Where My Mouth Is

If my theory is true, how can I make money out of it?

I don’t have enough money to risk shorting thousands of shares of Tesla, Twitter or Space X, so I’m guessing I should try to invest in shares of their competitors in similar sectors.

  • Tesla - Tesla has done it’s job of making electric cars look cool and desirable; now everyone is getting in on the act - should I invest in Rivian and Lucid who are in the same “cool electric” niche? Should I invest in traditional carmakers who are pivoting to electric and hydrogen vehicles - the Fords, Audis and BMWs who are catching up with Tesla and also have experience of distributing and maintaining fleets of cars?
  • Twitter - in my opinion, all of the social media companies are overvalued, so I'll stay out of it completely
  • SpaceX - should I invest in other space startups and traditional space companies? I'm assuming that Nasa won’t want to deal with an asshole for life support of astronauts?

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